印尼视角:“一带一路”如何影响东南亚? | 一带一路大家谈

国观智库多年来一直积极开展“一带一路”相关研究工作,为其建设献言献策。2019年4月,中国将举办第二届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛。值此之际,国观智库特推出“一带一路”大家谈系列专题,邀请国内外各领域专家从不同方面解读“一带一路”倡议,以飨读者。

本文字数:3303字 阅读时间:8 分钟

Angel Damayanti,印度尼西亚基督教大学社会与政治科学院系主任,马来西亚理科大学国际关系博士。主要从事亚太地区海洋及海事安全研究。

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如果东南亚国家能够更好地帮助“一带一路”在本国落地,他们将会从中获得更多机遇和好处。但假如这些国家不能建立起合适的管理机制,反而将对其自身利益带来损害。如果当地居民和华裔之间产生冲突,那么“一带一路”倡议可能反而会助长反华情绪。因此,为了更加平稳地推进“一带一路”投资,中国和东盟国家需要理解彼此间商业规范的差异,通过签署投资协议,使双方共识制度化。可通过规范最低劳工标准、确定采购流程、提高竞争政策透明度等方式,在双边、多边领域,利用东盟机制,加强中国与东南亚国家的合作。

“一带一路”倡议在东盟

——印度尼西亚视角

Angel Damayanti

在过去四十年里,中国在东南亚国家的影响力越来越大、影响范围也越来越广。这始于中国在邓小平时期所采取的“外向型”经济与军事政策,并在20世纪90年代初得到进一步加强。继中国与东南亚及中亚国家的合作取得显著成效后,中国现任国家领导人习近平主席于2013年提出了“一带一路”,并于2015年改为“一带一路”倡议。

有人认为,中国不仅是要拉近他们与伙伴国之间的关系、实现大陆间的互联互通,还要借此为中国带来更为显著的经济增长、更强的军事实力以及更为广泛的全球影响力。尽管“一带一路”倡议旨在促进区域合作和互联互通,加强中国与沿线65个国家的基础设施建设、投资及贸易往来,但世界银行认为“一带一路”是一项“雄心勃勃”的行动。一些观察人士还认为,“一带一路”倡议可能会引发一系列问题,尤其是在亚太地区,它可能会增加政治与经济竞争的风险。因此,本文旨在通过观察“一带一路”倡议对东南亚国家所产生的影响来评估该倡议。

中国在东南亚的影响力和“一带一路”倡议

自从20世纪70年代末邓小平提出“改革开放”政策之后,中国在东南亚地区的经济和政治影响力不断增强。它改变了中国经济发展模式,加快了中国融入国际市场、开展全球贸易的步伐。这项政策也使得中国成为东亚、东南亚地区,乃至全球范围内最具影响力的经济体之一。紧随经济改革的步伐,中国政府还出台其他政策,例如向1.5万名中国青年提供奖学金,资助他们出国留学,同时恢复与美国等国家的关系。当时,良好的中美关系对中国来说十分重要,一方面,美国是促进中国经济增长和现代化进程的关键助推因素之一;另一方面,借助与美国的良好关系,中国可以提升国际社会对自身的认可,使得中国在地区事务中发挥更大作用。

自20世纪90年代初起,中国加强了对东南亚地区的关注。由于20世纪80年代末中美关系恶化,中国政府转而更为积极地接触东亚、东南亚的国家和地区。1992年,这一转向首先面向与中国具有相似社会文化传统的国家和地区,例如日本、韩国和台湾地区,随后拓展到泰国、新加坡、马来西亚和印度尼西亚等地。中国主动接触东南亚国家的表现始于其1991年派代表团出席了东盟部长会议,通过一系列努力,中国于1996年正式成为“东盟全面对话伙伴国。”

中国和东盟国家的关系是互利共赢的。一方面,中国接近东南亚国家是为了应对美国和西方国家的孤立而采取的保护性措施;另一方面,东南亚国家可以充分利用中国政府所提供的经济和投资机遇。比如,从1993年到2003年,马来西亚与中国的贸易额增长了11倍,日本、泰国、新加坡、菲律宾和印度尼西亚等国也出现了对华贸易顺差,因为中国日益蓬勃的制造业需要从这些国家进口原料。自2004年起,中国已成为日本的主要贸易伙伴,并超过美国成为东盟国家的重要贸易伙伴。

中国与东盟国家的积极经济往来同样反映在相互融合、相互依存的双边关系上。中国已经成为许多国家重要的经济合作伙伴,其经济地位在世界范围内得到了认可。目前,中国经济总量位居世界第二,GDP年均增长接近10%。自2008年金融危机以来,中国已成为世界经济增长最大的贡献者。

公元前140年,汉朝成功开辟了连接亚欧大陆的丝绸贸易路线,为中国及其亚洲邻国带来了经济增长。2013年9月和10月,习近平主席分别提出建设“新丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的合作倡议。这也被称为“一带一路”倡议(BRI)。这一倡议支持中国与亚洲国家的经济增长及发展,被认为是中国和亚洲国家走向成功的关键。为认真落实“一带一路”倡议,自2013年以来,中国政府已与125多个国家和29个国际组织签署合作协议支持“一带一路”建设。

各国积极参与“一带一路”建设,离不开亚洲基础设施投资银行的支持,亚投行已向其成员国的9个项目提供了至少17亿美元贷款。中国国家开发银行和中国进出口银行也分别设立了2500亿元人民币和1300亿元人民币的专项贷款计划,用于支持“一带一路”基础设施、产能合作及融资。中国还呼吁金砖国家开发银行、世界银行等多边开发机构支持“一带一路”相关项目。目前,已经有一些“一带一路”项目在东盟国家实施,包括雅加达-万隆高速铁路项目、中老铁路项目等。

人文和科技交流同样必不可少。中国提供教育奖学金、促进旅游、举办艺术节和交易会等社会文化活动说明,“一带一路”倡议离不开“文化交流”的支持。作为一个新兴科技大国,中国也十分关注研发方面的潜在合作。中国是全球第二大研发支出国,其研发费用占全球研发支出总额的20%。习近平曾在演讲中提到,中国愿意为外国科学家提供上千次在中国进行短期科研访问和培训的机会。

中国认为,“一带一路”倡议可以为东南亚国家带来好处。换言之,推进“一带一路”倡议的力度越大,中亚及东南亚地区国家的收益就越大,中国的基础设施建设和经济投资可以促进东南亚国家的繁荣和稳定。但是,在经济快速增长和技术创新的推动下,东南亚国家也会选择购买国防装备,推进武器和国防系统的现代化。因此,如果不能达成一个共识机制妥善管控的话,东南亚地区的军备竞赛和安全困境将不可避免。

不仅如此,由于中国与周边国家存在海洋边界冲突,如与日本的钓鱼岛问题和与部分东盟成员国的南海问题,导致中国推进自身现代化的计划被视为威胁。中国向其他亚洲国家广泛输出投资和劳动力还可能导致这些国家国内经济竞争加剧,甚至引发社会不稳定;也可能会刺激东南亚国家的反华情绪,并逐渐变为实际行动。

“一带一路”对印尼的影响

针对共建“一带一路”,中方具体提出了五项原则。一是恪守联合国宪章的宗旨和原则。遵守和平共处五项原则,即尊重各国主权和领土完整、互不侵犯、互不干涉内政、和平共处、平等互利。二是坚持开放合作。“一带一路”相关的国家基于但不限于古代丝绸之路的范围,各国和国际、地区组织均可参与,让共建成果惠及更广泛的区域。三是坚持和谐包容。倡导文明宽容,尊重各国发展道路和模式的选择,加强不同文明之间的对话,求同存异、兼容并蓄、和平共处、共生共荣。四是坚持市场运作。遵循市场规律和国际通行规则,充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用和各类企业的主体作用,同时发挥好政府的作用。五是坚持互利共赢。兼顾各方利益和关切,寻求利益契合点和合作最大公约数,体现各方智慧和创意,各施所长,各尽所能,把各方优势和潜力充分发挥出来。

“一带一路”构想十分宏大,许多国家特别是中亚和东南亚国家都对加入“一带一路”这个平台很感兴趣。然而,从当前中国形势看,中国国内也存在一些值得注意的问题。在经济和GDP增长的背后,中国的城乡发展存在巨大的差距,经济发展不平等现象逐渐加剧。这也会导致很多社会问题,例如生态环境恶化、空气污染以及发展不平衡。中国也面临着人口老龄化、人口红利下降等问题。针对这些现象,一些观察人士对正在增长的中国经济持有疑虑。如果不能及时防范这些问题,那么就可能会对东南亚国家的经济产生影响,毕竟其发展依赖于中国的投资和经济增长。

除了中国国内问题,中国也正采取积极姿态增强其军事力量,尤其是海上力量和武器现代化,这引起了邻国的担忧。中国国防现代化的想法始于1992年,2011年3月发布的《2010年中国国防白皮书》再次强调中国坚持走和平发展道路,奉行独立自主的和平外交政策和防御性国防政策。尽管如此,仍有一些国家十分警惕中国的军事行动。

另一方面,正如有些学者提到的,由于经济、社会和政治问题,东南亚地区的反华情绪正在上升。中国投资者及劳动力的涌入,刺激了当地人对中国的负面情绪。2018年年中,数以万计的越南人对经济特区草案表示抗议。老挝也发生了类似事件,2016年3月琅勃拉邦省普昆县附近发生不明身份暴力分子持枪袭击中资企业在当地的工棚,造成中国公民1人死亡,3人受伤。此外,马来西亚政府近期也重新审查并取消了中国支持的在该国修建铁路和天然气管道的项目。

此外,较贫穷的本地人与较富裕的华人之间的经济差距,当地穆斯林与非穆斯林华人之间种族和宗教上的差异,加之当前马来西亚和印度尼西亚的政治不和,都助长了这种反华情绪。在马来西亚,由于穆斯林政治的分裂、巫统的主导地位不断削弱,2018年5月9日,在马来西亚第14届大选中,希望联盟获胜,成为马来西亚的执政联盟,其中由马来西亚华人所支持的民主行动党(DAP)是马来西亚执政联盟(希望联盟)成员之一。然而,这种情况同样助长了马来西亚国 内反华情绪,人们担心,类似1969年的排华事件可能再次席卷这个国家。

同样的,在印度尼西亚国内,发生在基督教堂的多起袭击事件、丹绒巴莱市的骚乱事件,以及2016年雅加达州长选举中出现的反华裔政治家钟万学的现象,都证明印度尼西亚存在较为严重的反华情绪。此外,随着大规模中国投资的增加,和大量非法劳工涌入当地,也造成了当地人的不满情绪。

结论

如果东南亚国家能够更好地帮助“一带一路”在本国落地,他们将会从中获得更多机遇和好处。但假如这些国家不能建立起合适的管理机制,反而将对其自身利益带来损害。如果当地居民和华裔之间产生冲突,那么“一带一路”倡议可能反而会助长反华情绪。因此,为了更加平稳地推进“一带一路”投资,中国和东盟国家需要理解彼此间商业规范的差异,通过签署投资协议,使双方共识制度化。可通过规范最低劳工标准、确定采购流程、提高竞争政策透明度等方式,在双边、多边领域,利用东盟机制,加强中国与东南亚国家的合作。

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in ASEAN Countries: Indonesia’s Perspective

Angel Damayanti

Universitas Kristen Indonesia

In the last four decades, China performed an increasingly large and widespread influence particularly in Asian countries, including Central and Southeast Asian. The increasing of Chinese influence in the region began with the outward looking of economic and military policies during Deng Xiaoping’s leadership and started to be implemented since 1990s. Following the success of Xiaoping government in approaching Southeast Asian countries with ASEAN as the driving force, in the Central Asia region, the current leader of China, Xi Jinping introduced the “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative in 2013 and later changed into “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) in 2015. Such initiative began when Xi Jinping visited several countries in Central Asia region and ASEAN countries throughout 2013 to 2015.

With this initiative, China is perceived not only to approach their partners and make a trans-continental scale connectivity, which brings benefits to them, but also to bring more significant economic growth, military power and global influence especially to China. Although the initiative aims to improve regional cooperation and connectivity as well as to strengthen infrastructure, trade, and investments links between China and some 65 other countries, the World Bank (2018) considers BRI as an ambitious effort. Some observers also view that BRI has the potential to cause problems, ranging from economic to political competition particularly in Asia Pacific. (Ward, 2017; Hawksley, 2018) Therefore this article is intended to provide an evaluation of the BRI program run by Chinese government by looking at the impact it has caused to ASEAN members, including Indonesia.

China’s Influence and BRI in Southeast Asia

The extent of Chinese influence both economically and politically in Southeast Asia region started when Deng Xiaoping carried out the “open door” policy in late 1970s which reformed especially China’s economic field and open up the international trade in the country. (Tisdell 2008) The policy has made China now to become one of the outward looking and even more influential countries in the global economy, particularly in the Southeast and East Asia regions. This economic reform policy was also followed by Xiaoping’s policy of providing scholarships to 15,000 Chinese youth and sending them to study abroad and restoring good relations with other countries, including the United States (US). The US at that time was considered important for China because it is the key to economic growth and modernization while at the same time helping it to be accepted in the international community and playing a greater role in the region. (CIA, 1986)

Southeast Asia region have not been a concern for Chinese government until early 1990s. When the relationship between US and China deteriorated due to Tian’anmen incident in 1989, Chinese government began to approach countries in Southeast and East Asia regions. The approach was first made to Taiwan, Japan and South Korea in 1992, which were considered to have socio-cultural conditions and values which similar to those of the Chinese government and society. This approach continued to countries in Southeast Asia such as Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. China’s initiative to approach ASEAN countries was demonstrated through the presence of the Chinese government in the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) in 1991, which finally increased and made China to become ASEAN Dialogue Partner since 1996.

The relationship between China and ASEAN member states is said to be mutually beneficial. On one hand, China’s approach to Southeast Asian countries is a safeguard against the effects of isolation imposed by the US and Western countries on it. On the other hand, countries in the region take advantages of the economic and investment opportunities offered by the Chinese government. Malaysia for example, from 1993 to 2003, experienced up to eleven times increase in its trade with China. Countries like Japan, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia also enjoy a surplus as manufacturing companies in China rely on imported goods from their countries. It is also important to note that since 2004, China has become Japan’s main trading partner and it has surpassed the US as an important partner for ASEAN countries. (Bader, 2005)

Positive economic relationship between China and ASEAN member states also performs integrated and interdependence relationship. China as an important partner of economics in many countries is also proven by its economic position in the world. Currently, China is ranked the second as the country with the largest economy in the world and GDP averaged nearly 10 percent a year. Even China has become the biggest contributor to the growth of the world economy since the financial crisis in 2008. (World Bank, 2018)

Reflecting on the success of Han Dynasty around 140 BC which opened the silk trade route from West to East and looking at the positive economic relationship between China and it neighbor countries in Asia, in 2013 Xi Jinping launched the Silk Road Economic Belt program on the land basis and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road on the sea basis or currently also known as “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). (Jinping, 2017) Such initiative is believed to be the key to success for China and Asian countries as it supports the economic growth and development of these countries. To perform its seriousness in implementing BRI, the Chinese government has signed cooperation agreements with more than 40 countries and international organizations since 2013. Moreover, around 20 countries and other international organizations will also make trade connectivity and financial arrangements with China in the near future to support BRI program. (Jinping, 2017)

The high willingness of countries to participate in BRI is inseparable with the support of the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB), which has provided funds of at least US $ 1.7 billion as loans for 9 projects in participating countries. Not to mention the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China that set up special lending schemes respectively worth RMB 250 billion equivalent and RMB 130 billion equivalent to support Belt and Road cooperation on infrastructure, industrial capacity and financing. (Jinping, 2017) China also calls upon BRICS New Development Bank, the World Bank and other multilateral development institutions to support Belt and Road related projects. Some of the BRI programs that have been realized in a number of ASEAN member countries include the construction of Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railroad infrastructure and the Laos-China railway line.

The success of Chinese initiative is also supported by “people-to-people” approach carried out through socio-cultural activities such as offering educational scholarships, tourism, art festivals and trade fairs. The government of China also looks at potential cooperation in research and development (R&D) since China is believed has emerged as a new science and technology powerhouse currently. China is now the second-largest performer in terms of R&D spending and accounts for 20 percent of total world R&D expenditure. (Veugelers, 2017) To confirm this, in his speech Jinping (2017) offers thousands of short-term research visits and training in China for foreign scientists.

Such proposal, on the one hand as believed by Chinese government will bring benefits to the region on a country basis. The more intense China offers BRI programs the more benefits the countries in Central and Southeast Asia region will gain, including Indonesia. The infrastructure development and other economic investment from China are likely to promote the national prosperity and regional stability. On the other hand, rapid economic growth and innovation in technology in China and other countries in the region will also encourage these countries in the modernization of their weapons and defense system as well as the purchase of their defense equipment along with the increase of national income. If this is not properly regulated through a mutually agreed mechanism, the arms race and security dilemma in the Central and Southeast Asia region is inevitably to occur.

As China still has a number of sea-border conflicts with its neighboring countries, such as the East China Sea issue with Japan (Horimoto, 2005) and the South China Sea overlapping claims with ASEAN member countries namely Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam (Severino, 2010), the modernization of Chinese PLAN is perceived to be a threat (Damayanti, 2013; Hawksley, 2018). Not to mention the expansive spread of Chinese labors and investments to a number of countries in Asia will be considered as an issue since it increases social insecurity and domestic economic competition. Even worse, such situation is provoking the anti-Chinese sentiment that turns into actions, as happened in Laos, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. (Ward, 2017)

The Impact of BRI in Indonesia

It is interesting to understand that there are Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence in implementing the BRI, as explained by Xi Jinping (2017). Firstly, BRI is a road for peace and requires a peaceful and stable environment. The platform is built by respecting mutual sovereignty, dignity and territorial integrity with a vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security. Secondly, BRI is a road of prosperity. Therefore BRI focuses on the fundamental issues of development such as industries, finance and infrastructure. BRI also releases the growth potential, achieves economic integration and interconnected development with which benefits will be delivered not only to China but also to all participants.

Thirdly, BRI is a road of opening up to bring economic progress and balanced development on the basis of cooperation and shared interests. For this purpose, BRI focuses on resolving issues such as imbalances in development, difficulties in governance, digital divide and income disparity and makes economic globalization open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial to all. Fourthly, BRI should be considered as a road of innovation in which digital economy, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology and quantum computing combined with a green development is made as a way of life. Lastly, BRI should be viewed as a road connecting different civilizations with mutual understanding, respect and trust among different countries. By this Chinese government establishes a mechanism for cultural and people to people exchanges, through education, sport, health, and cultural heritage.

With such a great vision of Jinping’s BRI, many countries particularly in Central and Southeast Asia are interested in joining the platform and connectivity. However, there are a number of issues that should be noted from the current China situation. Behind its economic growth and increasing GDP, there are high disparity and economic inequality particularly between urban and rural areas. This imbalance also drives urbanization, which then causes social problems, environmental degradation, air pollution and other imbalances. Chinese government also faces demographic problems related to population growth, the elderly and unproductive population and the problem of labor migration in large numbers (Wang & Rabinovitch, 2009; Moore, 2010; Morcroft, 2014). By such situation, a number of economic observers accordingly are doubtful about China’s economic growth rate, which is considered slowing. (Babones, 2016, Bulloch, 2016) If such problems are not immediately anticipated, it is likely to bring impacts on Chinese counterparts’ economic in the Southeast and East Asia regions, as their national economic growth depends on China’s investment and economic growth.

In addition to domestic problems, China’s economic growth is followed by an aggressive stance of the Chinese PLA to increase its military power especially its sea power and the modernization of its weapons has aroused suspicion for neighboring countries in the region. The idea of modernizing China’s military weapons and systems actually started when Jiang Zemin began to take the lead in 1992. (Sukma, 1995) The modernization continued and even the Chinese government confirms this policy on its 2011 Defense White Paper stating that they put forward the principle of “Peaceful Development” in carrying out its foreign policy, which was also followed by increasing its military strength and strategy. Although the Chinese government has justified its efforts are aimed at defense purposes and the increased budget is more widely used for personnel needs, training and maintenance, a number of countries remained perceive this a concern. This is true for the case of East and South China Sea.

It is also interesting to understand what Oliver Ward (2017) has mentioned that anti-Chinese sentiments is rising across the Southeast Asia region resulted from economic, social and political issues. The issue of Chinese investments coupled with Chinese workers has provoked negative feelings towards China in the region. In mid 2018, tens of thousands of Vietnamese took protest against the draft on new special economic zones controlled by Chinese investors. (Ucanews, 2018) Similarly in Laos, a Chinese worker was killed and three others were wounded in Xaysomboun province, where Chinese-invested company runs its hydropower project. (Martina, 2016) This is in addition to Malaysian government that just reviewed and cancelled China-backed rail link and natural gas pipeline projects in the country due to unbearable interests. (Straits Times, 2019)

The economic disparity between poorer local people and wealthier Chinese descents, racial and religious differences between local Muslims and non-Muslim Chinese descents coupled with political contestation in the current Malaysia and Indonesia also contributes to this anti-Chinese feeling. In Malaysia, the fragmentation of Malay-Muslims politics together with the weakening dominance of UMNO has brought Democratic Action Party (DAP) that gain supported mostly from Chinese descents in Malaysia, as one of the four component parties of the Pakatan Harapan government coalition since 2018. Yet, such situation has also raised the anti-Chinese feeling and fears that racial tensions could once again grip the nation, like in 1969. (Griffiths, 2019)

Similarly, a number of attacks at Christian churches in Indonesia, an attack at Buddhist temples in Tanjung Balai and anti-Ahok sentiments in Jakarta’s Governor election in 2016 have proved that anti-Chinese sentiment remains high in Indonesia. (Tasevksi, 2017; Damayanti 2017) The massive investments from China’s BRI in Indonesia is likely to exacerbate the situation. This is not to mention, the entry of tens of thousands of Chinese labors along with their investment that has raised more concerns about job competition and suspicion about the Illegal foreign workers. (Artharini, 2016)

Conclusion

Chinese’s BRI provides many opportunities as well as benefits if it is able to be managed appropriately by the recipient countries, especially in Southeast Asian countries including Indonesia. The inability of BRI recipient countries to create the right mechanism will eventually harm themselves. Especially if the country’s internal situation has a potential conflict between local residents and Chinese descent, which ultimately fosters anti-Chinese sentiment. Therefore to ensure BRI investments flow equitably, both politically and economically, it is crucial that China and ASEAN countries institutionalize a common understanding on normative differences through an investment agreement, which covers a minimum labor standards, procurement, transparency and competition policy, not only bilaterally at the national level but also multilaterally at regional level using the ASEAN mechanisms.

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国观智库成立于2013年,是中国最知名的独立智库之一。国观智库始终坚持“行知·致远”的发展理念,用知行合一、行稳致远的态度和实践致力于中国的安全、繁荣和稳定,研究领域聚焦于海洋战略与蓝色经济、边疆治理与全球反恐、”一带一路”与境外投资。